As Goa’s coastal landscape settles into a late-onset monsoon and tourist footfall begins to taper, political activity is set to intensify. Leaders of top parties are expected to land in the state for regional events, organisational meetings and, crucially, to assess the ground situation ahead of the Goa assembly elections, likely to be held in February 2027.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah is set to visit Goa on September 6 for a two-day visit. He is scheduled to attend the presentation of the President’s Police Colour to the Goa Police, inaugurate the BJP’s new state headquarters on the outskirts of Panaji and unveil a six-lane highway project in North Goa.

The visit comes as the BJP prepares for a month-long statewide outreach programme focused on direct engagement with voters and strengthening its organisational presence. Earlier this year, BJP national president Nitin Nabin met the state leadership, MLAs and party workers. The party has set an ambitious target of winning 30 of Goa’s 40 assembly seats.

Congress national president Mallikarjun Kharge visited Goa on Monday, when he addressed party workers amidst the resignation of Congress's 108 block-level officers (BLO). The Congress is seeking to turn anti-incumbency against the BJP into an electoral advantage. In 2022 assembly elections, Congress had won 11 seats but has since lost nearly two-thirds of its elected legislators to defection. 

Last month, AICC general secretary K C Venugopal visited Goa to address organisational unrest following the appointment of Girish Chodankar as GPCC president. He held meetings with the party’s political affairs committee to discuss the election roadmap, campaign strategy and outreach plans, while reiterating the Congress’s intention to challenge the BJP.

The Aam Aadmi Party is also stepping up its presence. National convenor Arvind Kejriwal recently concluded a five-day visit to Goa and is expected to return as the party strengthens its organisation and explores an alliance with opposition parties. Kejriwal has already called on Goans and opposition parties to unite against the BJP and repeal the controversial Section 39A of the TCP Act.

With the BJP seeking to consolidate its hold, the Congress attempting a comeback and AAP exploring a broader opposition strategy, Goa’s political season appears set to gather pace well before the campaign officially begins. Beyond the movement of political heavyweights, several issues are beginning to shape the state’s political conversation. 

The opposition is attempting to turn land, jobs, tourism and governance into an anti-incumbency narrative, while the BJP is seeking to defend its record through development, investment and targeted welfare. But the biggest political question is whether the opposition can avoid splitting the anti-BJP vote, considering that a lack of tactful unity worked in the BJP’s favour last time.

Opposition unity and alliance arithmetic

Congress, AAP, Goa Forward Party and Revolutionary Goans Party have all explored the possibility of an electoral understanding, but differences over seat-sharing, leadership and strategy remain. 

In Goa’s 40-member assembly, where each constituency has roughly 23,000 voters, even a modest vote split can prove decisive. In 2022, the BJP won 20 seats, followed by Congress with 12. AAP and MGP won two each, RGP secured one, while independents took the remaining three. 

The opposition had failed to consolidate the anti-BJP vote despite significant anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pramod Sawant. The fragmented opposition also reflected distinct campaign narratives. AAP and TMC positioned themselves as alternatives to the Congress, while MGP sought to capitalise on resentment over the BJP ending their alliance in 2019. RGP, meanwhile, built its campaign around protecting Goa’s identity and opposition to migrant influence. Congress largely relied on its legacy as Goa’s principal national opposition party.

Will it all change this time?

For Congress, any alliance will be about consolidating the anti-BJP vote. For AAP and GFP, it is also about retaining their independent political identities and bargaining power.

AAP has publicly shifted towards exploring an alliance with Congress. AAP’s state president Valmiki Naik argued that the next government should have at least 35 MLAs to prevent defections and political instability. Congress has also signalled openness to a broader opposition arrangement. Meanwhile its erstwhile alliance partner Goa Forward Party has suspended the talks with Congress, with GFP chief Vijay Sardesai saying, “they (Congress) don’t keep their word.”

ST reservation: Four seats, but potentially a much bigger reshuffle 

Passed by Parliament in August 2025, the Readjustment of Representation of Scheduled Tribes in Assembly Constituencies of the State of Goa Act, 2025 was brought into force on August 6, 2026, paving the way for constituency readjustment and ST reservation.

With four assembly seats likely to be reserved for tribal candidates, the issue could reshape Goa’s electoral map. The move allows the BJP to claim credit for delivering a decades-old demand, with party leaders highlighting the Modi government’s role in advancing political representation for Goa’s tribal communities, which account for 10.2 percent of the state’s population. A final decision on the constituencies is awaited though Priol, Quepem, Sanguem and Nuvem are among the seats being discussed.

While tribal voters have largely backed the BJP, which currently has three tribal MLAs and one BJP-supported tribal independent, the uncertainty around the electoral implications of this issue could force parties to rethink candidates and alliances this time, particularly in South Goa where the majority of the tribal communities reside. 

For the opposition, it offers an opportunity to question the BJP’s handling of the process, considering uncertainty around whether this will be implemented before the 2027 poll. For tribal organisations, this is a chance at electoral leverage. The United Tribal Associations Alliance (UTAA), a prominent pressure group advocating tribal rights in Goa, has been engaging with major political parties to push political representation and tribal issues to the centre of their election agendas. The group was recently denied permission to hold a protest seeking clarity on the implementation of ST reservation, further fuelling discontent with the government.

The BJP also faces a potential challenge within its traditional tribal support base following the recent removal of Govind Gaude, a tribal MLA from Priol, from the state cabinet. 

Land, development and Section 39A of TCP Act

Section 39A of Goa’s Town and Country Planning (TCP) Act empowers the Chief Town Planner, with government approval, to modify land-use zoning in Regional Plans based on individual applications. This allows green, agricultural, orchard, or eco-sensitive plots to be converted into settlement zones for commercial constructions. 

But the section has evolved from a technical town-planning provision into perhaps the opposition’s most potent “save Goa” campaign issue. What began as an organic environmental protest has evolved into a broader campaign against the BJP government, with parties seeking the repeal of Section 39A through different strategies.

Congress joined street protests and the march to TCP Minister Vishwajit Rane’s residence, while AAP has called for a special assembly session and pledged to repeal Section 39A within a month of forming the government. GFP chief Vijai Sardesai backed the agitation but skipped the march. RGP MLA Viresh Borkar led the most sustained campaign, including a six-day hunger strike that ended after land-conversion cases in St Andre were suspended.

The BJP government, meanwhile, has resisted calls for repeal and is attempting to reframe the provision as a planning and conservation tool rather than a land-conversion mechanism. The announcement of moving 23 lakh square metres of land across Goa under non-developable status under the provision has strengthened their position. This gives the BJP a counter-narrative to the Opposition’s “save Goa’s land” campaign: that Section 39A can be used to restrict development as well as facilitate zoning changes. 

The issue could particularly impact land- and development-sensitive seats such as St Andre, Bardez, Pernem and Tiswadi, mobilising farmers, landowners and residents concerned about rapid construction. It could cut across party lines, making land conversion a key constituency-level issue in 2027. The issue is also before the Goa High Court, where the Goa Foundation’s challenge to the provision is continuing.

Jobs, mining and Goa’s economic future

Employment could become a key voter-facing issue, particularly among young Goans. 

The BJP is pitching a mix of government recruitment and private-sector jobs, with 2,500 new government posts announced and Health Minister Vishwajit Rane claiming up to 22,000 vacancies could be filled before the polls. But with Goa’s unemployment rate at 8.3 percent, compared with 3.1 percent nationally, the opposition has a ready campaign question: if Goa is prospering, why are young Goans still struggling for jobs?

Mining adds another dimension to the debate. As the BJP pushes a regulated revival for jobs and revenue, Congress has raised concerns over Vedanta’s alleged Rs 16,500-crore liability, while GFP and AAP have opposed coal handling at Mormugao Port. The emerging divide is less pro- or anti-mining and more about whether Goa’s economic growth should prioritise revenue and jobs or environmental protection and local benefit.

Mining has had its strongest electoral impact in Goa’s interior mining belt, particularly Bicholim, Sanquelim, Mayem, Sanvordem, Sanguem and Curchorem, located at the foothills of Western Ghats. In 2012, the BJP won five of six key mining-belt seats, riding anger over illegal mining and promising action. By 2022, the prolonged mining ban had created visible resentment against the BJP, with mining-belt constituencies recording some of the state’s highest turnouts; yet the issue was not enough to dislodge the party, which retained most of these seats.

Tourism, illegal businesses and public order

Tourism presents the BJP with both an achievement to defend and a challenge to manage. The government is seeking to move from a “more tourists at any cost” model towards higher-value, year-round and sustainable tourism, including eco-tourism and experiential travel, while continuing to expand connectivity and attract visitors.

But the same growth has fuelled concerns in North Goa over noise, traffic, illegal businesses, unauthorised accommodation and late-night disorder, particularly in Anjuna, Vagator and the wider coastal belt. This gives the opposition a ready governance narrative: while the BJP highlights tourism revenue, jobs and investment, it can argue that Goans are paying the price for unchecked tourism growth. 

The contest could ultimately be over a simple question: does Goa need more tourists, or better tourism?

Taken together, these issues point to a 2027 election that could be fought on competing visions of Goa. The opposition will seek to turn land, development, jobs and governance into a case against the BJP, while the governing party will have to defend its record on infrastructure, tourism, investment and economic growth. 

The writer is an independent journalist based in Goa.

Your support keeps news free. Get a 6-month subscription at Rs 1947. Or gift it to your friends or relatives.