Uttar Pradesh 2017 will not be the same as Uttar Pradesh 2014. Amit Shah, president of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), seems to have accepted that. Two years ago, UP was where Shah, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trusted lieutenant and master strategist, weaved his magic in the general elections, the BJP winning 71 of the 80 seats.

The embarrassment of Bihar last year, however, shows that it won’t be smooth sailing for the party in the largest state of the Hindi heartland. Already, Shah is breaking bread with the marginalised and building a team of ministers and MPs. But more than everything else, trying hard to crack the caste code.

The vote of UP’s Dalits, who constitute 20 per cent of the state’s population, still seems to be intact with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Muslims (17 per cent) and Yadavs (nine per cent) are with Samajwadi Party (SP). Along with the Jats, SP has the backing of over 40 per cent of UP’s voting population. BJP is eyeing the balance 40 per cent, comprising Thakurs, Brahmins, Bhumihars, Kurmis and some OBCs. According to party insiders, Shah believes who ever gets 22 per cent of this vote will win easily. The key now is to strike a perfect balance between the backward and forward caste vote banks.

The party believes that upper caste now constitute 24 per cent of UP’s population. At 13 per cent, Brahmins are a key constituency when it comes to triangular fights. Over the past few Assembly elections, BJP’s Brahmin vote share has shrunk from 50 per cent in 2002 to 44 per cent in 2007 and 38 per cent in 2012. But UP is a land of proximities and probabilities, and the Brahmin votes that are not with BJP tend to get split equally between SP and BSP.

Like all other castes, Brahmins do not vote as one. To lure voters via social media, BJP is using Hindutva ideology. Issues like banning cow slaughter and building more temples are doing the rounds of groups on WhatsApp and Facebook in order to bring the voters back to the saffron fold. The RSS’ recent anti-reservation stand is also being used as a tool to attract Brahmins.

Then there are many Brahmins who are ticket aspirants, like Mirzapur unit’s Diwakar Mishra, in Allahabad for BJP’s national executive committee meeting. “I’ve been a part of the RSS and have now been in BJP for two years,” Mishra, a volunteer for the media welcome committee, told Newslaundry. “Brahmins are educated people who want respect. BJP is the only party who knows how to respect us.”

The CM dilemma

Additionally, two Brahmin names, both ministers at the Centre, are doing the rounds as potential chief ministerial candidates. One is Kalraj Mishra, who was mentioned by Modi in his speech at the national executive meeting. Insiders, however, believe that Mishra is past his sell-by date and has a reach that is limited to some parts of eastern UP. He is not liked by senior leaders from the state and the perception is that he has not really delivered the goods as Minister of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises.

The other Brahmin in the fray, Mahesh Sharma, spends most of his time in Varanasi to be in the good books of the PM. The Minister of Tourism and Culture spends the rest of his time in western UP, and is not a known face as far as the ground-level workers are concerned.

While the party is still finalising its strategy and is yet to zero in on a candidate, the rumour mill is working overtime. The media at the executive meeting got a letter pad with the face of Rajnath Singh along with Modi, who in his speech said that Singh was the “aan baan shaan” of UP. While his short stint as CM from October 2000 to March 2002 was not as good as Modi claimed it was, Singh remains a contender for the job.

UP’s Rajputs, though, are unsure about supporting Singh’s bid. Shah might take the help of Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiyya in order to make Rajput MLAs from other parties gravitate towards the BJP; sources close to Raja Bhaiyya, however, denied any such arrangement.

Another frontrunner, 84-year-old Kalyan Singh has had two previous terms as CM. His nomination might lead to a backlash from Kurmi, Koeri and other OBC communities. Currently, the governor of Rajasthan, Singh was once the face of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement, and is said to have good relations with SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Social engineering

In April, Shah made Keshav Maurya the state president in place of Laxmikant Bajpai, a Brahmin. To offset the damage done by this ostensibly anti-Brahmin move, another Brahmin, Shiva Pratap Shukla, was sent to the Rajya Sabha. Apart from the state head, 44 of the 94 new district presidents are from backward castes, with 29 Brahmins, 10 Rajputs or Thakurs, nine Vaishyas or Baniyas and four Dalits. In the decades preceding the demolition of the Babri masjid, most district chiefs came from forward castes.

Last year in Varanasi, Shah addressed a rally of Rajbhars, an extremely backward caste (EBC) that has a sizeable presence in Dewaria, Balia, Azamgarh, Salempur and Gazipur. Rajbhars, who used to be a BSP vote bank, are now represented by a party called Bhartiya Samaj Party. BJP insiders claim the party will either be given 10 seats or its local leaders will be persuaded to merge with BJP. Similarly, the tie-up with Apna Dal is to get Kurmi votes in eastern UP.

Two years before the next general elections, UP 2017 is very crucial for BJP. A positive result in the state that sends the maximum number of MPs to the Lok Sabha will lay the groundwork for Battle 2019.