Fear of horse-trading haunts Congress days before Gujarat result

GPCC chief Bharatsinh Solanki claimed, after a closed-door meeting with candidates, that the party is sweeping the Assembly polls with 120 seats.

WrittenBy:Amit Bhardwaj
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On Friday morning, Gujarat Congress’ headquarters in Ahmedabad wore a deserted look. It appeared as if the party had accepted the humiliating defeat being predicted in the exit polls for the Assembly elections.

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Fast forward to 2 pm – TV channel crews were camped outside the party office. Congress candidates could be spotted rushing towards the third floor, where a meeting had been called by state president Bharatsinh Solanki.

It was clear that the Congress was not only taking a stock of the situation but the meeting had also been called to send the message that they were still very much in the fight.

Moreover, it was aimed at putting the pressure back on the incumbent BJP, for which the exit polls have predicted a massive victory, leaving no hopes for Congress’ revival in the state.

Inside the closed-door meeting, all candidates, district in-charges and other functionaries were asked to present a report. Based on the assessment of the party leaders, data crunching was done by the senior leaders, including Solanki.

According to a highly placed source, the party had expected exit polls to predict its defeat. “We are not at all surprised by the exit poll numbers. In fact, when the results will be out, everyone except the Congress will get a shock,” he said.

On Thursday evening, Times Now’s VMR exit poll gave the BJP 109 of 182 Assembly seats and 70 to the Congress. Republic TV’s C-Voter poll indicated a BJP victory with 108 seats and NewsX’s exit poll predicted 110-120 seats for the saffron party. News Nation gave the highest – 124-128 seats – to the BJP and just 52-56 seats to the Congress. India Today and Zee News as well as NDTV’s Poll of Exit Polls – all gave the BJP a majority in the state.

Soon after the meeting was over, Solanki briefed the media. “We have got immense support from voters in the first and second phase of the polls. Our analysis says we will get 120 seats,” he said.

Rejecting the exit polls, he reminded journalists of the fiasco of 2015, after the Assembly polls in Delhi and Bihar, when it was widely predicted that the saffron party was all set to ride to power.

Solanki said Congress president-elect Rahul Gandhi’s decision to camp in the coastal state during the polls made quite a difference. But he refused to make a direct comment on less voter turnout in the 2017 polls.

According to sources, the insider analysis of the Congress predicts 47 seats for the party in the first phase and as high as 60 of 93 seats in the second phase. This means its internal review says it will comfortably form the government in Gujarat.

Solanki’s confidence might make him a laughing stock on December 18 if the numbers swing as predicted in the exit polls. The state Congress chief had even gone to the extent of discussing the possible actions which could be taken during the first cabinet meeting.

Solanki claimed that the BJP’s defeat in Gujarat will have nationwide ramifications. “The BJP had tried to horse-trade our legislators even during a small election and they took away 14 of our members,” he accused.

Notably, the fear of horse-trading is still haunting the Congress. While Friday’s meeting, a day after the second phase of polling, was meant to mobilise the cadre, it was also aimed at avoiding a repeat of what happened after the Goa Assembly elections.

In March, the Congress had failed to form a government in Goa despite getting more seats than the incumbent BJP.

Thus, Friday’s meeting was an attempt to keep the party’s candidates occupied and to inform them that the top leadership was keeping an eye on them.

If the contest comes neck-to-neck on December 18, counting day, the Congress will surely not want to lose its newly-elected members to the BJP.

However, the claim that the party had “swept” the Gujarat Assembly polls still seems to be an unrealistic one – considering the exit poll numbers.

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