3 things that saved the BJP’s sinking boat in Gujarat

Vijay Rupani can thank the opposition’s lack of a statewide election plank, fear of Patidar resurgence and consolidation of non-Patel votes for his re-election.

WrittenBy:Amit Bhardwaj
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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may have won Gujarat. But it’s a moral victory for the Congress. Despite being out of power in the state for 22 years, the party managed to erode the BJP’s support base.

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Throughout the campaign and even on counting day, the entire party leadership and its workers were on their toes. The very fact that workers and sympathisers were not allowed to celebrate at the party headquarters in Ahmedabad, even when the BJP crossed the majority mark in the initial trends, is proof of the deep dent left by the opposition. It was only when the BJP crossed the 100-seat mark in projections did party officials allow workers to celebrate.

In the final tally, the saffron party managed to clinch just 99 seats, the Congress and its allies together won on 80 Assembly seats. However, the only relief for the BJP is that its vote share has increased compared to the 2012 Assembly elections. Incumbent Chief Minister Vijay Rupani used the same argument while addressing the media after being re-elected. This was a neck-and-neck battle, and the Congress has lost a golden opportunity. Riding on the wave of social movements – triggered by dissatisfaction and anti-incumbency – Rahul Gandhi’s brigade did create a threat to the Rupani government. But couldn’t fully capitalise on them.

The 2017 Gujarat Assembly polls was a close battle with the Congress despite getting 41.4 per cent vote share, failing to take it home. Here are the three factors, which could have saved the BJP’s game in Gujarat:

The opposition’s failure to create a pan-Gujarat anti-BJP narrative

While the BJP can pat itself for the increased voteshare in Gujarat, the Congress’ 41.4 per cent voteshare is an actually an indicator of massive unpopularity of the Rupani government. The Congress has used Hardik Patel’s movement for Patidar reservation in its favour. By making the OBC leader Alpesh Thakor join the party, it milked the community’s dissatisfaction against the BJP. By supporting Jignesh Mevani, it tried to target the BJP government over the issue of increasing Dalit atrocities in the state. Patidars form 13 to 15 per cent, Dalits form barely seven per cent of the state population. The Congress reaped electoral dividends from these movements. But what it failed to understand was that one also needed pan-Gujarat issues in the assembly. In the run to focus on specific communities, the Congress failed to create a pan-Gujarat plank against the saffron brigade. The lack of issues which would concern and attract voters across caste, class and religion made a big difference. Especially, when the governing party had pan-Gujarat topics to speak of. The BJP’s plank of Vikas (development) and seeking votes on Narendra Modi’s face did connect to the Gujarati voters.

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During the second phase of polling, this correspondent met several voters who had come to vote for these agendas. Particularly, women.

“I had voted to save Gujarat ka gaurav Narendra Modi. When the entire nation is standing with him, how can we abandon our Modiji,” said 53-year-old Sonal Shah. Her single point agenda to vote for the BJP was to save PM Modi’s credibility.

Congress’ weak organisation vs BJP hyperactive electioneering mechanism

The BJP’s campaign in-charge, Kaushik Patel, told Newslaundry, “We have 1.15 crore registered party workers. Every election for us – holds equal importance, even the smaller ones.” According to him, the strategy remains same that is “aggressive use of electioneering mechanism.” The BJP was heavily relying on its cadre – knowing the fact that the situation was adverse on the ground. The 22 years of anti-incumbency and pressure of specific communities had made this 2017 battle almost unwinnable. Patel said that right from the top brass to Panna Pramukhs (booth in-charges), each worker ensured that no stone is left unturned. The party had created a mechanism through which it was getting real-time feedback of crowd turnout at its rallies, public meetings and even at cultural activities being organised to pull crowds. Every time an event failed to attract the crowd, respective in-charges would be pulled up, said Patel, now the Naranpur constituency’s newly-elected legislator.

On the other hand, the Congress was clearly lagging when it came to such a mechanism. Even though, Congress president Rahul Gandhi was pulling huge crowds in his rallies and road shows, the state leadership failed to leave an impact. In several parts of Ahmedabad, workers from the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) were not only aggressively campaigning against the BJP but were also spotted at polling booths – keeping a track of the community voting pattern. The party needs to ponder upon what happened to its own mechanism.

The situation is so alarming that several Congress heavyweights failed to even win their own seats – including Shaktisinh Gohil and Arjun Modhwadia. Notably, Gohil was being considered the frontrunner for CM had the Congress won the poll.

In fact, the BJP had accused the Congress of contesting the election through imported leaders – referring to Patel, Mevani and Thakor. Union Minister Mansukh Mandaviya, in conversation with Newslaundry, said the Congress fought the polls with Team B (the trio) and its team A (own leadership) has failed miserably.

Patel’s movement triggered consolidation of non-Patidar voters in favour of the BJP

Hardik Patel’s aggressive stance against the BJP sent a message amongst the non-Patidar voters that if Congress wins, the political prowess of the Patidars will see a resurgence. The state is yet to forget the violent Anamat movement led by 24-year-old Patel. While the non-Patidar voters consolidated in favour of the BJP, it is believed that Patel himself failed to ensure shift of majority Patidar vote-bank in favour of the Congress. It is also because until the PAAS agitation, Patidars have traditionally voted for the BJP.

Central Gujarat has 61 of the 93 seats which went to vote in the second phase on December 14. The BJP had managed to clinch over 40 seats in this region. Considering the figures, it won’t be wrong to say that Central Gujarat saved the BJP’s sinking ship. Notably, the rural parts of Saurashtra has completely rejected the BJP. “These are electoral dynamics which keep on changing from one election to other. The Congress should worry about itself which had tried to divide the state on caste lines and maligned Gujarat’s image by mocking Vikas,” Mandaviya told Newslaundry.

Urban Gujarati voters still go by the narrative that under Modi’s regime, the urban landscape witnessed heavy infrastructure development. At least in the second phase of the polling, these voters did come out to save the BJP government only because of their love for Modi.

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