Once represented by former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Phulpur Lok Sabha seat has now become a battleground between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Currently, PM Narendra Modi-led BJP, which has been critical of Nehru, has an edge over any other party. Especially the Congress.

Barely a week before voting day, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati tried to turn the tables in favour of Akhilesh Yadav-led SP. By extending her support to the strongest candidate “against the BJP”, she announced the understanding between the BSP and the SP for the Phulpur and Gorakhpur bypolls scheduled for March 11.

Considering the vote-base of the two parties, this should ideally have been a killer combination. An alliance of OBCs and Dalits bringing together the minority community vote-bank would form the biggest vote-bank. If the BSP is able to transfer its votes to the SP, nothing can stop it from registering a historic victory in Phulpur and Gorakhpur. And it would prove to be a major setback for the BJP, as Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath has been representing Gorakhpur in the Lok Sabha for five terms and his deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya had registered a mammoth victory in Phulpur in the 2014 general elections.

BJP supporters wave as Yogi Adityanath’s helicopter descends in Allahabad.

Phulpur has roughly 19 lakh voters and is constituted by five Vidhan Sabha seats – all won by the BJP in 2017. While OBCs – in which the Yadavs, Patels and Mauryas are dominant – make up the major vote-bank in the seat, Dalits constitute over 15 per cent vote-share. Muslims are believed to be less than 10 per cent.

However, as said politics is not all about statistics and caste dynamics – especially considering unprecedented support for the BJP in the 2017 state polls.

SP MP from Badaun, Dharmendra Yadav, told this correspondent: “We are thankful to Mayawati for extending her support to our party. Voters, supporters and cadres of both parties for long were appealing for a united front for social justice against the BJP.”

As he took the stage in Hathgaon, part of the Phulpur constituency, slogans of “Mayawati-Akhilesh Yadav zindabad” were raised by supporters. On the stage, SP and BSP flags were put side by side. Even motorcycle rallies and door-to-door campaign for the SP included BSP’s flags.

On the ground, however, the alliance seems a cosmetic one. At least, in Phulpur. For instance, not far from the election meeting of Yadav, 60-year-old Rani Devi, who had come to buy groceries from the weekly mandi, had no clue about the alliance or BSP’s understanding with the SP. “Hanthi ko vote det rahin, ab ke pata nahi (I have been voting for the BSP, don’t about this time as our party is not contesting the polls),” she said.

Even though both SP and BSP office-bearers maintain they are carrying out coordinated campaigns, they seem to not have reached voters on the ground. “We (SP-BSP) have shared a list of booth-level workers. Senior leaders are coordinating with booth-level cadres from both parties asking people to vote for the SP candidate,” said Munir Ahmed Khan in charge of SP’s central election office in Allahabad.

BSP zonal coordinator in Allahabad, Ashok Gautam, told Newslaundry: “This is not an alliance. Behenji’s instructions are clear – to ensure the BSP vote-bank doesn’t get scattered and hence we have transferred our votes in support of SP candidates.” However, when told that BSP voters are not aware of the said political understanding, he responded: “Your information is wrong. All our workers are aggressively campaigning against the BJP and in support of SP.”

Even though the BSP called meetings of its workers right after the announcement was made by Mayawati it seems to have had little impact.

In Semari village of Phulpur constituency, BSP voters are aware of the understanding but not because of the BSP workers. Shiv Kumar, 26, said “I got to know about the announcement through newspapers. Now we will shift our votes to the SP, else we would have voted for the BJP.” Kumar lives in an SP-dominated village. His neighbour Amar Singh, who also belongs to the Dalit community, said: “SP workers have been aggressively campaigning along with BSP flags.”

Similarly, in Phulpur town’s Sheikhpur locality, Dalits are unaware of the political development. Men and women did agree that SP workers have visited the locality but emphasised that no BSP worker has informed them about the development. Barely metres away is the house of a block-level BSP leader.

Importantly, two trends were visible in Sheikpur – those who knew about the alliance – like Manoj Kumar, a beedi worker – knew through social media and hearsay; and second, those who didn’t know about the BSP-SP joining hands said they would rather go with Modiji.

When told about Mayawati’s announcement. Ram Kishore, a retired beedi worker, said: “We didn’t know about Behenji’s statement so far, so we would have voted for the BJP. Now that we know – we cannot ignore her request.”

BSP’s Allahabad zonal coordinator Gautam was not ready to buy these statements. He told this correspondent: “Ek Baspa supporter NOTA ko vote de dega, lekin kabhi  Bhajpa ko vote nahi de sakta hai (a BSP supporter will prefer voting for NOTA than voting for the BJP).”

The BJP cadre base is, meanwhile, creating confusion among voters by terming Mayawati’s announcement a rumour, while BSP workers seem to be putting little effort into spreading the correct message.

In Allahabad North’s Rajapur area, despite the meeting called by the BSP, the confusion continues. One of three councillors of BSP, Nikki Kumari, said: “Abhi dhoop hai na, shaam mein prachar ko niklenge 10-15 log. (10 to 15 workers will campaign with me in the evening, as it’s very sunny right now).”

She added that the biggest challenge they are facing is “our people are not ready to trust that we can even forge an alliance with the SP.”

In a situation like this, SP’s strategy of carrying flags of both BSP and SP and raising slogans in the name of Mayawati and Akhilesh seems a smart move.

On the other hand, the BJP is claiming that the “unholy alliance” has only made its cadre more confident. UP BJP chief Mahendra Nath Pandey told Newslaundry: “The electoral alliance of Mayawati and Akhilesh has galvanised our cadres. The day Mayawati announced that she is supporting the SP, our workers decided to put more effort to increase the margin of victory for our (Phulpur) candidate Kaushalendra Singh Patel.”

When asked about the caste dynamics which might have shifted in favour of the SP candidates, Pandey said: “When we won 325 seats in the Assembly polls, we got support from all communities – including those on whose basis the SP and BSP run their electoral shop. They are left with only their leaders; voters have already shifted to the BJP.”

While for the BJP it is an opportunity to set the tone for the 2019 general elections, for the SP and BSP the fight is to save their electoral importance.

Interestingly, the Congress, which is fighting a lone battle in the bypolls, seems to be taking on both the BJP and SP-BSP. Its only hope is the caste dynamics and its fallout. Both SP and BJP have fielded candidates from the Patel community – Nagendra Singh Patel and Kaushalendra Singh Patel respectively. The Congress has fielded a Brahmin candidate – Manish Mishra.

Congress candidate Manish Mishra’s election office.

The Patel community has a strong social capital in Phulpur, and BJP’s alliance partner – Anupriya Patel’s Apna Dal – has a strong voter-base in the Patel community. However, the community vote-bank is set to get divided between the SP and BJP as both candidates belong to the same Patel sub-caste.

Relief for BJP comes from two factors, said a BJP leader on the condition of anonymity. “Even though Dalits form a large vote-bank in Phulpur, the share of the Jatav community (Mayawati belongs to the Jatav sub-caste) is too small. Also, we are hopeful that (jailed former SP leader) Atiq Ahmed will eat into the Muslim vote-bank, making our victory easier.”

Another major OBC community, Maurya, which was earlier with the BSP, has switched over to the BJP – considering the rise in the stature of BJP leader and now deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya.

The Congress’s Brahmin card and confusion among BSP voters are its only hope. Congress district president Anil Dwivedi told this correspondent: “After a long time a Brahmin candidate has been fielded. We should get a share of Brahmin votes. Before the entry of BSP, Dalits and Muslims had been traditionally voting for the Congress.”

Congress candidate Mishra could eat into the upper-caste vote share of the BJP. This keeps the fight alive for the SP as it might manage the dent in Muslim votes caused by independent candidate Ahmed, who is contesting polls from the Deoria jail.

Meanwhile, UP Congress president Raj Babbar blamed the SP for breaking the earlier alliance with his party. He told Newslaundry: “We should not be blamed for contesting a lone battle. We had requested the SP to fight from one seat and leave the other for us.”

Interestingly, in this battle for Phulpur and Gorakhpur, the poll issues are missing. CM Yogi Adityanath, addressing a gathering of over 3,000 in Sahason village on Thursday, said: “To ensure consistent progress being brought by the central and state government of the BJP, vote for the BJP in the bypolls.” He also proudly announced that the BJP candidate is from Varanasi.

The opposition parties could have exploited this “outsider” card. BJP’s Kaushalendra Patel was Varanasi mayor and was brought to weed out the possibility of an internal rift in the party. However, so far the SP, Congress and even Ahmed have failed to make this a poll issue, especially when they have all fielded locals as their candidates.

CM Adityanath’s poll rally in Allahabad.

The BJP is leaving no stone unturned to win the bypolls. While CM Adityanath is making the rounds of the constituencies, sometimes landing in style in a helicopter, other senior BJP leaders have also been campaigning aggressively.