The threat of a strong El Niño still looming, rainfall in this year’s monsoon season varied by the month. June was one of the driest in India’s history, closing at a 35% deficit whereas July was 1% above normal. This ‘normal’ rainfall in July was largely driven by Central India whereas East and South India had a large deficit. As of August 26, the all India seasonal rainfall stands at a 13% deficit, in keeping with the weather agency’s forecast of a below-normal monsoon. The deficit is still most pronounced in East and South India.

There have also been floods or flood-like situations in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, and parts of the National Capital Region, Uttar Pradesh etc. What does this mean for India’s primary cropping season, that is, Kharif? What does this mean for farmers, foodgrain production, food prices and ultimately, for consumers?

Reviewing preparedness for this Kharif crop season earlier in June, Union agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan had said, “There is no need to panic. What is required is preparedness and collective action.”

The Union government had urged states to promote short-duration crop varieties and those capable of delivering higher yields with lower water requirements. It further encouraged farmers to adopt crop diversification. “Intercropping and mixed farming practices are also being promoted to ensure that if one crop is affected, farmers can still generate income from others,” the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare said, and listed a number of measures it is taking including water conservation and harvesting works under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and Viksit Bharat- Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission Gramin (VB-GRAMG).

So far, India’s sown area under pulses has increased as compared to this time last year but the area under rice declined by 1.3 million hectares, or 3% lower than 2025-26. Even the area sown under coarse cereals (ragi and maize) has seen an overall dip, oilseeds (soybean and castor) has seen a decrease, and so has sugarcane and cotton. Overall, India’s sown area as yet is 1.6 million hectares less compared to this time last year. 

Sugar prices have surged within one month, going from Rs 48 on July 20 to Rs 55 on August 20. As a precautionary measure, the government permitted duty-free import of raw sugar “to further augment domestic availability”.

On this backdrop, ISignal spoke with Siraj Hussain, former Union agriculture secretary, on what a weak monsoon could mean for India and his assessment of the situation of the ongoing Kharif crop season. 

Hussain had earlier served as secretary for food processing and industry, and was chairman and managing director of Food Corporation of India (FCI). At present, he is advisor (food processing), FICCI and a trustee of World Food Programme Trust for India.

Edited excerpts:

India as a whole has had a wide variation this monsoon so far. East and Northeast India has a 26% rainfall deficit, South has 22% deficit and Northwest has 10% deficit rainfall so far. All of these regions are important from an agricultural point-of-view. A prolonged dry spell or uneven rainfall distribution in August could affect Kharif yields. What is your assessment so far?

All India rainfall figure does not reveal much. This year, Bihar has been in a bad shape as the cumulative deficit is 40% as on August 22. It was 40% deficient in June, 42% cumulative deficiency in July and August has been no better. So the poorest state of India, with very low income of farmers has experienced very poor rainfall. Marathwada, Vidarbha, Rayalseema and South interior Karnataka have all seen deficient rainfall. In these regions crops will suffer and farmers income will go down. 

Deficiency in Punjab is about 33%. Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat have a shortfall of about 25%. Rajasthan is also in bad shape with 22% cumulative deficiency.

If we are to only look at August, East UP received almost normal rainfall while it had a cumulative deficiency of 34% by the end of July. Meanwhile west MP, an important soybean-growing region, has received 20% less rain in August. Of course, a lot will depend on rainfall in the rest of August and in September. August is a critical stage for grain formation and we have to remember that too much rainfall in September can damage the standing crops.

District-level rainfall may differ from state-level patterns and the condition of crops depends on rainfall at a local level. A recent evaluation of crop condition (21st August 2026) by Agriwatch showed that out of 446 districts monitored by them, about 32% districts were under watch. Of this, 15% districts are under watch for ‘dry risk’ and only 5% districts had very poor condition of crops. 

But, on the whole I don’t think there will be any significant loss of foodgrain production. It should not be more than 5% loss.

Overall, India’s sown area is now about 1.6 million hectare less as compared to this time last year and particularly rice, sugarcane, oilseeds are affected. What is your reading of this? 

As of 21st August, overall sown area is only marginally lower than last year’s. But it does not mean that production will also be similar to last year, as growth of crops, especially in rainfed areas, needs regular supply of water. By now, the sown crops have reached the flowering stage, which will be followed by pod formation and maturity. 

For example, paddy is entering the stem elongation and panicle development stage. Paddy needs a steady supply of irrigation at this stage. Even short periods of water stress can cause severe spikelet sterility, poor panicle growth, and loss of yield. 

So low rainfall in August will have an impact on several sown crops in dry regions. In fact, even irrigated regions need rainfall for healthy and optimum growth. So, even though the area (under Kharif) may look normal, the yield may be lower. 

The government has identified 111 most vulnerable districts this Kharif season. In particular, these are districts with deficit rainfall and less than 25% irrigation coverage. If rains continue to be weak in August and September, what advice will you give farmers of these districts that fall under Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha?

The government did well to identify the most vulnerable districts. I understand that there were regular meetings with state governments to review the progress of sowing and issue of advisories to farmers. As far as I know, there are districts having large deficit of rainfall. 

The advice to paddy farmers is to maintain a shallow standing water depth of about 5 cm in the field during this reproductive phase of plants. Intermittent irrigation is recommended when soil in the irrigated fields reaches the saturation limit. Farmers know that they have to ensure that the soil should never develop cracks.

You would be surprised that even in an El Niño year, 146 districts have a large excess of rainfall. Farmers in most regions already know what to do after sowing their crops under conditions of lower rainfall.

When you were the Union agriculture secretary and India would see a weak monsoon, what measures were taken by the Centre then and are there any learnings which should be implemented now?

Actually right now, the situation is not as serious as it was in 2015. There are no serious reports of drinking water shortage or animal fodder being badly affected. The year 2015 was the second year of drought, whereas last year, we did not have less rainfall; in fact, we had excess rainfall. The area under irrigation was 45% in 2015 and it is 55% now. So, I believe India is better prepared. The area under micro irrigation has also gone up.

In regions where early rain triggered sowing followed by dry spells this year, farmers had to re-sow or spend heavily on diesel-powered irrigation. How severe is the financial burden on small and marginal farmers who are caught in this cycle?

This situation can be really hard for farmers but it is covered under Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) through prevented sowing/planting/germination risk component. If adverse seasonal or climatic conditions force the farmers to bear extra costs to resow or completely prevent farmers from planting, PMFBY provides financial safety nets. If the state’s agricultural machinery at the ground level is proactive, it will assist the farmers in lodging claims with the insurance companies.

India’s agriculture ministry has advised farmers to take up short-duration crop varieties and those capable of delivering higher yields with lower water requirements. Could you please elaborate what this means for farmers?

There are several recommended crops. For example, moong matures in 60–65 days, Urad matures in 70–75 days and thrives well on residual soil moisture. Lobia matures in 60–70 days. It is an excellent crop used for grain as well as fodder. Bajra, ragi and jowar can also grow well even if rainfall is lower. The farmers are well aware of all this. 

The challenge before the state government is to ensure supply of high quality seeds of these crops. The problem is that we don’t know the quantum of climate-resistant seeds actually sold. That information is not in the public domain. 

If dry spells lower output quality or yields in rainfed areas, farmers often end up selling below the Minimum Support Price (MSP) to local traders. What immediate relief measures should the Union and state governments trigger to protect farm incomes?

This is complicated. Quite often, states are not able to ensure MSP to farmers. Since the market prices are ruling high, it is possible that prices may not fall below MSP but the states should watch closely and procure pulses at MSP wherever the prices fall below that. Also, import duty should ensure that landed price is not lower than the MSP of that crop. 

What do you think about the policies of different state governments announced so far? For example, the Maharashtra government had advised farmers in June to delay sowing due to poor rainfall.

As far as I know, no state government has declared a drought. The conditions for declaring a drought were modified in 2016 when the drought manual was revised. So it is now more difficult to declare drought, as a result of which the resultant support may not have come. Some measures are contingent upon a drought being declared, for eg, subsidy on diesel or subsidy for horticulture crops. 

The government had said that India has an adequate buffer stock of food grains, well above the prescribed norms and that this is quite enough to take care of the Public Distribution System requirement, as well as any emergency requirement. Your thoughts?

On July 1, 2026, the government had about 66.3 million tonnes of rice against the buffer norm of about 13.54 million tonnes. So there is plenty of wheat and rice available with the government. However, pulses and edible oils are witnessing higher prices and the government has to take care of that.

From a policy standpoint, does India's weather-forecasting architecture give Krishi Bhawan and state governments enough lead time to prepare contingency crop plans in cases like a developing El Niño?

Yes, contingency planning is not new. The Central Research Institute of Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad has been preparing such plans for over 15 years. The challenge is to put the plans into operation and make climate-resilient seeds available in time so that the farmers can sow the crops which are recommended in the contingency plan of various districts, especially the vulnerable ones identified by the government.

A report by a ratings agency stated that India also faces the threat of higher agricultural input costs due to the geopolitical conflict in West Asia. An unusually dry monsoon means that the agri sector is the most exposed. Do you agree that global events will continue to affect the sector? How can farmers and consumers be protected?

The government has done well to shield the farmers by not allowing any increase in the price of fertilisers. Urea was imported by the fertiliser companies at more than $950 per tonne, much higher than $400-450 per tonne before the US and Israel attacked Iran in February 2026. Electricity is free in several states and is highly subsidised in others.

Vulnerable consumers are protected for their requirement of wheat and rice by the National Food Security Act, 2013. But drought in some regions will affect production of pulses, maize, soybean etc. We are already witnessing high retail prices of sugar and the government has been forced to allow import of 1 million tonnes of raw sugar. So we cannot remain immune to the effects of El Niño when it comes to the food and agriculture economy, which in turn impacts consumption also.

El Niño has strengthened and is expected to grow stronger until October. How can the government prepare from now to protect farmers growing Rabi crops?

In areas where overall monsoon has been near normal and reservoir situation is good, there would be good soil moisture for rabi crops. The good news is that so far, it has not turned out to be a Super El Niño.

This report is republished with permission from IndiaSpend, a data-driven, public-interest journalism non-profit.