In the lead up to the Uttar Pradesh bypolls, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) termed the political understanding between Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mayawati’s (Bahujan Samaj Party) as a saap-chachundar (snake and mole)alliance.

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath himself made the Phulpur and Gorakhpur bypolls a battle of prestige for his government, going so far as to say the results would set the tone for the 2019 general elections. The results are out and BJP has faced a humiliating defeat in both Lok Sabha seats.

First in Bihar and now in the UP bypolls, the social experiment of coalescing the Dalit and the OBC vote banks along with support from minorities has yet again bested BJP’s strategy on the ground.

The final tally should be more rattling for the governing party since the BSP extended its tactical support to SP candidates barely a week before polling day. And yet it managed to successfully transfer its core voter base and help the Samajwadis land a telling political blow.

In Phulpur, SP’s Nagendra Singh Patel polled 3, 42,796 votes, winning by a margin of 59,613. Kaushalendra Singh Patel of the BJP could manage only 2, 83,183 votes. It’s significant that Atiq Ahmed, an independent candidate who fought the bypoll from Deoria jail, secured 48,087 votes, eating into the minority vote bank the SP was desperately trying to tap into. Had Ahmed’s votes gone the SP’s way, Patel’s victory margin would have crossed one lakh.

As for Gorakhpur, both the BJP and its chief minister had a lot riding on the outcome. The constituency has been Adityanath’s fortress for over two decades.  On Wednesday, Praveen Kumar Nishad, a young and amateur politician fighting on an SP ticket, put an end to the Yogi raj here.

Defeating BJP’s Upendra Dutt Shukla, Nishad won by a margin of 21,881 votes.

In Gorakhpur, the SP’s winning formula depended on the coming together of the Nishads, the Yadavs, the Dalits and the Muslim community. SP’s Praveen Nishad is the son of the NISHAD (Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal) Party founder Dr Sanjay Nishad. While the Nishads, one of UP’s several river-based communities, form 3.5 lakh of the constituency’s 19 lakh voters, the Yadavs, the Dalits and the Muslims add up to 6.25 lakh voters. The formula to rally almost 50 per cent of the electorate, therefore, paid rich dividends to the SP on counting day.

Notably, Congress party candidates in both Phulpur and Gorakhpur lost their deposits.

A clearly dejected Adityanath later told the media that the results were unexpected and that “overconfidence” had led to BJP’s defeat.

Despite the electoral drubbing, the UP CM termed the BSP-SP political understanding as “bemel (unnatural)”. Speaking to ANI, Adityanath said, “Our inability to understand the SP-BSP alliance forged after our candidates were declared… and overconfidence led to the BJP’s defeat. This is a matter of analysis.”

He added that local issues and the dip in turnout also did not help the BJP’s cause. The voter turnout in Gorakhpur was a little more than 47 per cent. The figure was 37 per cent in Phulpur.

“Instead of living in overconfidence, we must accept this result as a lesson for us. We will ponder upon the reasons,” the CM said.

SP and BSP’s core base intact

But it’s not just the BJP’s “overconfidence” that cost the party dearly. Equally to blame was the party’s arrogance.  

In 2014, Keshav Prasad Maurya had won Phulpur, garnering 52 per cent vote share. He was appointed the state’s deputy CM last year and had to vacate the seat, necessitating the latest bypoll. While the SP and BSP had polled 20 and 17 per cent respectively, the Congress’ vote share was reduced to a mere 6 per cent.

In Gorakhpur in 2014, Adityanath had improved on his previous tally by clinching the seat with 5.39 lakh votes. While SP’s Rajmati (a Nishad candidate) could secure only 2.26 lakh votes, Ram Bhuval of the BSP garnered 1.76 lakh votes. BSP and SP together had garnered over 42 per cent vote share.

Even in the 2017 Assembly polls, when the BJP registered a massive win, the BSP and the SP had not lost their core voters.

Election Commission data shows that while the BSP had garnered over 22 per cent vote share, the SP had secured 21.2 per cent vote share in the state.  

Clearly, even when the BJP wave and Narendra Modi’s effect were at their peak, the two parties and their combined vote share of 40-44 per cent had remained intact. Underestimating this tactical alliance was BJP’s arrogance as reflected in the speeches of Yogi Adityanath himself.

In the final pre-poll rally in Gorakhpur’s Unwal town, the CM tried to write off Mayawati. BJP’s leaders were hell-bent on proving that the BSP was incapable of transferring its vote bank. BJP’s UP chief Mahendra Nath Pandey had toldNewslaundry in Allahabad: “They are left with only their leaders; voters have already shifted to the BJP.”

Speaking to Newslaundry after Wednesday’s results, BSP’s Allahabad zonal coordinator Ashok Gautam said: “Behen Mayawati ki taqaat ka andaza ab inhe lag jana chahiye. Unke ek nirdesh par, unhe apna neta manane wale BSP karyakarta, SP candidates ke samarthan mein lag gaye. 100 per cent vote transfer hui (BJP should now realise the power and strength of Behen Mayawati. On her one instruction, BSP supporters and workers started campaigning in support of SP candidates and ensured a 100 per cent transfer of votes.)”

The BJP did not field a single Muslim candidate in the 2017 polls, and yet it managed to make a sweep. But several pressing local issues including Adityanath’s decision to close down slaughterhouses and putting pressure on Madarsa’s through government notifications and orders over the past year have become a concern for the minority community. This and the rise in SP’s vote share indicate a consolidated voting pattern among the minority community. They hold a sizeable and influential vote share in both seats.  

Another factor behind BJP’s defeat could have been their decision to pick candidates at the last moment.

The BJP probably believed that the contestant doesn’t matter and that whoever fights the poll on its symbol would clinch a victory. That’s why it decided to field Banaras mayor Kaushalendra Singh Patel from Phulpur at the last moment.  

On Wednesday, CM Adityanath said low turnout also contributed to the debacle. On March 11, the voters’ turnout in Gorakhpur was a little more than 47 per cent. The figure was 37 per cent in Phulpur. According to local sources, the voting pattern in urban areas, which make up BJP’s stronghold in both constituencies, was worse than rural areas. In 2014, Adityanath had pulled in most of his votes from the Gorakhpur urban assembly constituency area, with the margin in the three rural seats comparatively less for the man who was to become the CM.

Another reason for BJP’s setback could have been the party’s proclivity to host big political events. While CM Adityanath himself addressed 16 rallies in Gorakhpur alone, Akhilesh Yadav held just a rally each in Phulpur and Gorakhpur. BJP, therefore, may have ended up paying a little less importance to door-to-door campaigning.

But the BJP thinks otherwise. The state BJP spokesperson, Rakesh Tripathi, said:  “It would be wrong to blame the workers. They have put all their effort in campaigning and connected to the voters on the ground. This result was unexpected. While the low voter turnout has affected our prospects, we will ponder upon the other reasons.”

Meanwhile, SP chief Yadav addressed the media and thanked Mayawati and her party workers for their support. He also thanked smaller parties such as the NISHAD Party, the NCP, the Peace Party, and the Left parties for extending their support to the SP.

The former CM attacked Adityanath by pointing at the language used by him inside the UP Assembly. “He (Adityanath) used words such as ‘I am Hindu’ and ‘don’t celebrate Eid on the floor of the House’,” Yadav said. “In his election rallies, he said our party was the party of Aurangzeb.”  

If the voters in these two constituencies are so angry, imagine what will happen in 2019, Akhilesh added. “Those who form the majority and are hardworking were belittled by this government (through its policies),” he said. “This is a victory of social justice.”

It is not the first time of course that the coming together of two parties, representing Dalits and OBCs, has thwarted the BJP’s prospects. In 1993, Kanshi Ram (the founder of BSP) and Mulayam Singh Yadav (the SP founder) forged an alliance, leading to the coining of slogans such as “Mile Mulayam-Kanshi Ram, haawa mein udd gaye Jai Shriram (BJP).”

The two parties went on to form a minority government in the state, keeping the BJP away from power as UP recovered from the damage done by the demolition of the Babri Masjid.

In 2018, SP supporters carrying the flags of SP and BSP in the same hand had said if the two parties were to come together, the 2019 general elections will become a fight between the 85 per cent and the 15.

While the Opposition parties – Yadav, Mayawati and even the Congress – have enough time to ponder upon the possibilities of a larger alliance, the BJP, as Adityanath himself has said, will have to work on ways to tackle the alliance formed on the basis of caste equations.

If the BSP-SP forms an alliance in 2019, it will pose a serious threat to the BJP which won 72 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014.